Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 18.372810 22.178379 26.396050 31.392313 37.123391 43.465609 50.987754
2025-05-11 12.949339 17.934878 24.059326 32.024213 41.987191 53.911461 69.123532
2025-05-18 9.630709 14.913586 21.954059 31.782942 44.881220 61.450279 83.670311
2025-05-25 7.210091 12.375806 19.784879 30.787847 46.257528 66.739495 95.334467
2025-06-01 5.671443 10.700381 18.405993 30.483845 48.256410 72.697640 107.960248
2025-06-08 4.323115 8.989011 16.630064 29.256478 48.663623 76.319631 117.448884
2025-06-15 3.690416 8.324362 16.339333 30.156308 52.132076 84.320371 133.307753
2025-06-22 2.896423 7.173882 15.042102 29.252891 52.704917 88.073219 143.221276
2025-06-29 2.533101 6.770432 14.957870 30.293443 56.329248 96.471924 160.211445
2025-07-06 1.908378 5.656534 13.388942 28.574986 55.308525 97.692753 166.534344
2025-07-13 1.689614 5.393502 13.394317 29.627756 58.914071 106.218129 184.210575
2025-07-20 1.485938 5.113233 13.315874 30.497800 62.237441 114.424819 201.700516
2025-07-27 1.286531 4.824432 13.247548 31.522823 66.162860 124.221861 222.803868
2025-08-03 1.083227 4.466607 12.983069 32.162937 69.509212 133.357226 243.471515
2025-08-10 0.865388 3.980868 12.329976 31.921134 71.197476 139.786989 260.054043
2025-08-17 0.655904 3.424008 11.383674 30.922561 71.347495 143.560693 272.417724
2025-08-24 0.518277 3.047022 10.801445 30.617489 72.763936 149.545316 288.629971
2025-08-31 0.379605 2.581732 9.870587 29.385773 72.220125 152.000621 298.967168
2025-09-07 0.327069 2.454772 9.859641 30.288794 76.033043 162.424268 323.243140
2025-09-14 0.242507 2.116023 9.140167 29.382173 76.022908 165.860983 335.583806
2025-09-21 0.211570 2.035914 9.204362 30.426414 80.186494 177.182520 362.061379
2025-09-28 0.143088 1.671729 8.242508 28.701853 78.244774 176.945838 368.130942
2025-10-05 0.124987 1.617015 8.329052 29.758371 82.475514 188.617114 395.818200